Using information theory to optimise epidemic models for real-time prediction and estimation
Fig 5
Real-time APE sensitivity to increasing transmission.
We simulate 103 independent epi-curves under renewal models with sharply (A) increasing and (B) recovering epidemics. Top graphs give the true (green) and predicted (blue) incidence ranges, the middle ones provide estimates of Rs under the final and the bottom graphs illustrate how successive
choices from APE vary across time and are sensitive to real-time elevations in transmission.