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Using information theory to optimise epidemic models for real-time prediction and estimation

Fig 4

APE prediction accuracy.

We compare the APE metric (blue, left y axes) to the percentage of true incidence values, I_s+1 that fall outside the 95% prediction intervals of (red, right y axes) for various window sizes k. The dashed line is k*. Panels correspond to those of Figs 2 and 3.

doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007990.g004