Winter is coming: Pathogen emergence in seasonal environments
Fig 4
Mean probability of pathogen emergence for different control strategies with (A) square wave and (B) sinusoidal wave fluctuations.
We used the same scenarios as in Fig 3 and we fix the investment in control (cost of control C = ρM(t2 − t1) = 0.2). We explore how the intensity of control (ρM) and the timing of control (between t1 and t2) affect < pe >, the mean probability of pathogen emergence (lighter shading refers to higher values of < pe >). For the square wave scenario we identify a range of optimal strategies withing the dotted red curve where < pe > is minimized. The optimal strategies used in Fig 3 are indicated with a blue cross for both the square wave (A) and the sinusoidal wave (B). The minimal and maximal value for < pe > are: 0.166 − 0.366 (square wave) and 0.085 − 0.31 (sinusoidal wave). For the square wave (A), R0 = 1.5 does not depend on the timing and the intensity of the control. For the sinusoidal wave (B), there is a single strategy minimizing R0, namely R0 = 1.28 for t1 = 0.15 and ρM = 1.0, marked with a red cross in B. With the sinusoidal wave there is a single control strategy minimizing < pe > for t1 = 0.07 and ρM = 0.93 (blue cross in B).