Winter is coming: Pathogen emergence in seasonal environments
Fig 3
Optimal Control for square wave (A, C and E) and sinusoidal birth rates (B, D and F).
In A and B we plot The pathogen birth rate before (black line) and after the optimal control (dashed blue line) which minimizes the mean emergence probability < pe> (see also Fig 4). The square wave assumes that λ(t) = 3 1(0<t<0.7). The sinusoidal wave assumes that λ(t) = 2(1 + sin(2πt)). As in Fig 2 the gray shadings refers to the low transmission season (gray) and the winter is coming effect (light gray). Similarly, we indicate the additional low transmission period induced by control (blue shading) and the additional winter is coming effect induced by control (light blue shading).