An open source tool to infer epidemiological and immunological dynamics from serological data: serosolver
Fig 5
Simulation-recovery of parameter and infection estimates using simulated single strain longitudinal data in same format as the Hong Kong dataset.
A: Model estimated attack rates vs. ‘true’ attack rates. Solid line shows estimated attack rate with 80% (dark) and 95% (light) credible intervals (CI); green line and points shows true attack rates. B: ‘True’ process parameters used for simulation compared to estimated posterior densities. Green vertical lines indicate true parameter values; vertical lines represent 2.5th, 50th, and 97.5th percentiles. C: Model predicted titres and inferred infections compared to observed titres and known infections. Green diamonds indicate observed titres; black dashed lines indicate posterior median model predicted titres; blue shading shows 95% CI on model predicted latent titres (dark) and assay observations (light); vertical lines indicate the timings of true infections; orange shading indicates posterior probability of infection.