An open source tool to infer epidemiological and immunological dynamics from serological data: serosolver
Fig 4
Influenza A/H1N1pdm09 infection dynamics in Hong Kong cohort.
A: Exposure rates in unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals. Shaded regions show 80% (dark) and 95% (light) credible intervals (CI). Solid lines shows posterior medians. X-axis gives midpoint for that quarter. B: Age-specific exposure rates in unvaccinated individuals. Solid lines show median estimates for each age group (pink: <19 (n = 30), green: 19-64 (n = 264), blue: >64 (n = 17)) with 80% (dark) and 95% (light) CI shaded. C: Model predicted titres and inferred infections compared to observed titres for 4 representative individuals with inferred infections. Purple diamonds show observed titres; black dashed lines indicate posterior median model predicted titres; green shading shows 95% CI on model predicted latent titres (dark) and assay observations (light); orange shading indicates posterior probability of infection. Grey region shows titres outside the limit of detection. X-axis gives midpoint for that quarter. D: Posterior densities of antibody kinetics parameters and total number of infections (∑Zi). Vertical lines represent 2.5th, 50th, and 97.5th percentiles.