An open source tool to infer epidemiological and immunological dynamics from serological data: serosolver
Fig 3
Simulated vs. analytical infection history prior metrics (α = β = 1).
Bars show density histograms of infections from 10,000 simulated infection histories for 100 individuals across 42 infection periods. Red lines show known probability mass function. Plots A, D and G show the prior on the total number of infections per discrete time period j. Plots B, E and H show prior on the total number of lifetime infections per individual. Plots C, F and I show the prior on the cumulative number of infections across 42 time periods for one individual. Black line shows prior median, dark gray region shows 50% credible intervals and light gray region shows 95% credible intervals. Note that priors 1 and 2 are equivalent under these assumptions.