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Detecting critical slowing down in high-dimensional epidemiological systems
Fig 4
Estimating of time of emergence from case reports data.
a) The Poisson transmission model assumes Reff is a piecewise linear function of time, with a quadratic increase from 
at t = 0 to Reff = 1 at t = Δ. The time of emergence, Δ, is estimated from the simulated data using Bayesian MCMC (see Methods). b) Final posterior density of the time of emergence. The MAP values of 
for each model are listed in Table 1.
doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007679.g004