Improving probabilistic infectious disease forecasting through coherence
Fig 9
Average variance of forecasts, averaged over season, epiweek, target, and model.
Notice that the unordered WOLS increases the variance across HHS regions, which is reflected in the improvements under single-bin scoring. However, the variance of the unordered WOLS decreases at the national level, which is also the only region without significant benefit under single-bin scoring. The optimal model under multi-bin scoring (ordered OLS) retains the same variance of the original forecast distribution for the HHS regions, but slightly increases the variance slightly for the nation. This demonstrates the effect of the scoring has on projection method choice.