Improving probabilistic infectious disease forecasting through coherence
Fig 8
Difference between single-bin forecast skill of projection method and forecast skill of independent forecasts averaged over all regions and epiweeks broken down by target (left), season (right), and region (bottom).
Each point represents a single model-season combination. Box-whisker forecasts and represent the inter-quartile range as well as the maximum and minimum in forecast skill difference between projected method and independent forecasts. The improvements in single-bin forecast skill are consistent across season and target for the unordered WOLS. However, the improvements are only consistent across the HHS regions, not the national region.