Improving probabilistic infectious disease forecasting through coherence
Fig 2
Mock example of independent forecasts (red) and projected forecasts (blue) for three regions, National, HHS1 and HHS2.
Both the blue and the red point represent a triple of ILI forecast values for each region. Independent forecasts are projected onto the space satisfying the constraint of regional level forecasts summing to national level. The blue plane represents the set of points that satisfy the coherence constraint, namely that the weighted combination of region-level forecasts equals the National level forecast. Different projection matrices are able to map the red point to the blue point at different locations on the blue plane.