Accuracy of real-time multi-model ensemble forecasts for seasonal influenza in the U.S.
Fig 4
Overall test and training phase performance scores for selected models.
Displayed scores are averaged across targets, regions, and weeks, and plotted separately for selected models. Models shown include the FSNetwork-TTW model, the top performing model from each team during the training phase and, for the last two training seasons and the test season, the unweighted average of all FluSight models received by CDC. Model ranks within each row are indicated by color of each cell (darker colors indicates higher rank and more accurate forecasts) and the forecast score (rounded to two decimal places) is printed in each cell. Note that a component’s standalone accuracy does not necessarily correlate to its contribution to the overall ensemble accuracy. See discussion in the Ensemble Components subsection of the Methods.