Change, stability, and instability in the Pavlovian guidance of behaviour from adolescence to young adulthood
Fig 5
Model comparison based on Mean Prediction probability per trial (Ppt) in the long follow-up sample, showing that the difference in Ppt between the two best models is similar if one uses model-fitting vs. out-of-sample based methods A. ΔPpt estimated through a model fit measure, namely mean integrated likelihood per trial, N2 = 556. Both models have mean Ppt about 0.64. B. ΔPpt estimated by out-of-sample prediction of the 48th and 96th trials for each participant on a test subsample of N = 255. This out-of-sample comparison is more variable, but the resampling-based 95% confidence interval (CI) of the median difference is -0.0012 to 0.0026, consistent with A. If it were desirable to further reduce this CI, the estimate could be averaged over rotated out-of-sample trials, at the very considerable computational cost of re-estimating the entire model fit for each left-out sample.