Characterising seasonal influenza epidemiology using primary care surveillance data
Fig 6
The relationship between and the population level attack rate of simulated realisations of the process, across 2011 and 2013 H1N1pdm09.
For each accepted particle, the process was simulated again, and the total number of infected individuals from these new realisations was recorded, and converted into an annual attack rate (by dividing by the total population, and by 2 as it is the average over two seasons). Point colour indicates the probability of an individual seeking treatment; larger attack rates correspond to smaller treatment probabilities given that they all fit the same data. The red line shows where the product of and the attack rate would be equal to one; this is the line around which the majority of posterior density for initial population susceptibility values was situated (i.e., the density in Fig 4). This can be interpreted as indicating that, for points under this line, not all susceptible individuals became infected during the season.