Evolutionary dynamics of paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria
Fig 2
A. Likelihood of existence of clones over time. As a test of accuracy, the probabilities for the existence of the primary and secondary clones were also calculated analytically from a cumulative negative binomial distribution. Although the probability of harboring a clone is certainly non-negligible for most age groups, it is clear that the probability of diagnosis is many orders of magnitude smaller. B. The probability of obtaining a first or second clone in a given year as well as the probability of reaching the diagnosis threshold (20% of the HSC pool) folded with the 2010 US population distribution. The prevalence of every curve has been normalized to 1, so that these results may be interpreted as the age distribution of the clone and diagnosis arrival times. (M.C.: Markov Chain simulations; an.: Analytical calculations.)