Prediction of infectious disease epidemics via weighted density ensembles
Fig 3
Example of component model weights from the CW and FW-reg-w models.
Model weights are shown for predictions of onset timing (panel A), peak timing (panel B), and peak incidence (panel C) at the national level. The upper plot within each panel shows mean, minimum, and maximum log scores achieved by each component model for predictions of the given prediction target at the national level in each week of the season, summarizing across all seasons in the training phase when all three component models produced predictions. The lower plot within each panel shows model weights from the textbfCW and textbfFW-reg-w ensemble methods at each week in the season.