Malaria Elimination Campaigns in the Lake Kariba Region of Zambia: A Spatial Dynamical Model
Fig 8
Administering five more years of MDA to all or a subset of HFCAs increases the likelihood of elimination under high levels of ITN usage but cannot achieve elimination on its own.
The fraction of total study area population living in clusters where no local transmission has occurred over a month-long period is plotted for each month between January 2012 and January 2030. Line indicates the mean and shaded area the range observed over 100 samples from the joint posterior distribution of 10 best-fit habitat availability pairs for each cluster. A simulation results in elimination if no new infections occur in all clusters over a 3-year period. The “elimination” row indicates the fraction of simulations where elimination was observed. (A) Five more years of MDA in all HFCAs increases the likelihood of elimination only when ITN usage is very high. Otherwise, elimination remains very unlikely. (B) Limiting the 2016–20 MDAs to high-burden areas yields similar results to simulations where MDA was distributed to all clusters.