Malaria Elimination Campaigns in the Lake Kariba Region of Zambia: A Spatial Dynamical Model
Fig 3
Representative calibration of larval habitat availabilities in a single cluster located in Munyumbwe HFCA.
(A) Sampling over larval habitat availability scale factors for arabiensis and funestus identifies pairs of scale factors with good fits to: cluster-level prevalence by rapid diagnostic test (RDT) from surveillance data (blue, best fit to prevalence), HFCA-level seasonality of weekly reported clinical cases counts (yellow, best fit to clinical cases), and both prevalence and seasonality of clinical cases (red, best combined fit). Surface shows the residual error in the combined fit to both prevalence and clinical cases. (B) RDT prevalence between December 2011 and April 2014 observed during surveillance (black) and in simulation. Blue: Simulation of single pair of arabiensis and funestus habitat availability scales that result in the best fit to the surveilled prevalence without accounting for fit to seasonality of clinical case counts. Yellow: Simulation of single pair of habitat scales that result in the best fit to seasonality of clinical case counts without accounting for fit to prevalence. Red: Simulation of pairs of habitat scales that result in best (bold line) and top 10 (thin lines) fits when optimizing fit to both surveilled prevalence and seasonality of reported clinical case counts. (C) Normalized seasonality of clinical case counts observed in Munyumbwe health clinic reported data (black) and simulation of a single Munyumbwe cluster (blue, yellow, red, defined as in panel B).