Detecting Presymptomatic Infection Is Necessary to Forecast Major Epidemics in the Earliest Stages of Infectious Disease Outbreaks
Fig 4
Estimating the probability of a major outbreak when incubation and latent periods are not identical.
A. Symptoms occur before infectiousness. B. Symptoms occur after infectiousness. In B, the number of presymptomatic infected individuals is estimated using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo [48]. In the boxplots in A, for clarity, true probabilities greater than 0.98 are classified into bins of size 0.01, and in B, true probabilities greater than 0.8 are classified into bins of size 0.01.