The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account
Fig 3
Accuracy of the subjects' jump detections.
Subjects’ jump detections followed the fluctuations in jump likelihood provided by the sequence of stimuli. Each trial was sorted into four categories (hit, miss, correct rejection and false alarm), based on the comparison between the subjective jump detection and the actual position of jumps in the sequence. This sorting was used as a reference (trial 0) to examine the fluctuations in the posterior jump probability estimated by the Ideal Observer over the preceding trials. P-values correspond to two-tailed paired t-tests at trial 0. Solid lines and error shadings correspond to mean ± sem over subjects.