A Multiscale Model Evaluates Screening for Neoplasia in Barrett’s Esophagus
Fig 6
Predicted EAC cumulative age-specific incidence by the MSCE-EAC screening model after RFA treatment of HGD patients at index screen.
EAC cumulative age-specific incidence for four different ablation efficiencies of detected HGD patients at screening of 60 year old males in year 2010. Survival for the four cell types following ablation modeled are represented by ablation proportion vector ω, with ω = {1, 1, 1, 1} (no treatment, blue line), ω = {.5, .5, .5, .5} (red, circles), ω = {.01, .01, .01, .01} (purple, diamonds), ω = {1, 1, 1, 0} (light blue, triangles), ω = {1, 1, 0, 0} (green, squares). Scenarios plotted for σ = 3300 stem cells/mm2 and 60% biopsy sensitivity, resulting in 6% HGD cases, without detected malignancy, in the non EAC population at screening time (100K BE patient simulation size).