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Unveiling Time in Dose-Response Models to Infer Host Susceptibility to Pathogens

Figure 6

Selection of optimal days to collect mortality measurements for traditional dose-response models.

The red line traces a score for how well mortality at any given day represents infection estimated by the time-dependent model (refer to axis on the right). The score is given by , where Δ denotes the number of doses in the dataset, () represents the proportion infected in the Wolb⁻ (Wolb⁺) group subject to DCV dose j, and () the observed mortality proportion over time in the Wolb⁻ (Wolb⁺) group subject to DCV dose j. Gray vertical lines mark the optimal day to measure mortality for dose-response models (day 30, dash-dotted line) and the limits of the acceptable range (days 17 and 46). Dashed lines represent the Gamma distributions that describe old-age mortality, and black (blue) full curves refer to the Gamma distributions that describe infection-induced mortality in Wolb⁻ (Wolb⁺) (refer to axis on the left). Curves are the mean posterior probabilities and shaded areas represent the 95% CI.

doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003773.g006