VBA: A Probabilistic Treatment of Nonlinear Models for Neurobiological and Behavioural Data
Figure 6
Comparison of deterministic and stochastic dynamical systems.
This figure summarizes the VB comparison of deterministic (upper row) and stochastic (lower row) variants of a Lorenz dynamical system, given data simulated under the stochastic variant of the model. Upper left: fitted data (x-axis) is plotted against simulated data (y-axis), for the deterministic case. Perfect model fit would align all points on the red line. Lower left: same format, for the stochastic case. Upper middle: 95% posterior confidence intervals on hidden-states dynamics. Recall that for deterministic systems, uncertainty in the hidden states arises from evolution parameters' uncertainty. Lower middle: same format, stochastic system. Upper right: residuals' empirical autocorrelation (y-axis) as a function of temporal lag (x-axis), for the deterministic system. Lower right: same format, stochastic system.