Inferring the Structure of Social Contacts from Demographic Data in the Analysis of Infectious Diseases Spread
Figure 5
Country-specific matrices and European average.
a Final infection attack rate as a function of the basic reproduction number in the different countries (blue dots) by adopting country-specific matrices and by assuming the same probability of transmission
in all countries – specifically, the value resulting in
by adopting the average European matrix (green dot). The attack rate corresponding to the average European matrix is computed by assuming the average European age structure in the model. Red line represents the attack rate of the homogeneous mixing SIR model for values of
in the range of variability of the basic reproduction number of country-specific matrices. Grey line represents the best fit of the linear model to data points related to the use of country-specific matrices. b Percentage variation of infection attack rate for increasing values of
of models based on country-specific matrices with respect to models based on the average European matrix (with country-specific age structure). c As b but for the variation of the peak day. d–g Daily prevalence over time of models with
based on either the country-specific matrix (solid lines) or the average European matrix (dashed lines, with country-specific age structure) in Germany, Italy, France and Slovakia respectively. In this figure we assume the generation time to be 3.1 days.