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Optimizing Provider Recruitment for Influenza Surveillance Networks

Figure 2

Comparing ILINet estimates to actual state-wide influenza hospitalizations.

Statewide hospitalizations are estimated using data from three ILINets: the 2008 Texas ILINet (ILINet 2008), which consisted of providers, and ILINets of the same size that were designed using submodular optimization (Submodular) and maximum coverage optimization with a 20 mile coverage distance (Geographic). (a) The estimates from each network are compared to actual Texas state-wide influenza hospital discharges from 2001–2008 (Observed). (b) The submodular ILINet yields estimates that are consistently closer to observed values than the other two ILINets. For each of the three networks, the following procedure was repeated times: randomly sample a set of reporting profiles, one for each provider in the network; simulate an ILI time series for each provider in the network; perform an ordinary least squares multilinear regression from the simulated provider reports to the actual Texas influenza hospitalization data; and apply resulting regression model to the simulated provider time series data to produce estimates of statewide hospitalizations. The figures are based on averages across the estimated hospitalization time series for each ILINet.

doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002472.g002