Determinants of the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic in Europe: Implications for Real-Time Modelling
Figure 7
Predictions of simpler models (R0 = 1.48 Tg = 3.1 days).
(A) Observed peak week plotted versus predicted peak week (predictions refer to the best model with coupling between European countries: R0 = 0.8 during holidays; vertical bars represent 95% confidence intervals of the predictions) for European countries covered by the WHO/Europe weekly influenza surveillance system; only the Autumn wave is considered for UK. (B) Prediction error (average of the absolute value of predicted minus observed peak week in European countries covered by the WHO/Europe weekly influenza surveillance system) as a function of the relative change of R0 during the summer for models with (red points) and without (blue points) coupling between European countries (i.e. long-distance travel). Vertical lines corresponds to the relative change of R0 during holidays in four European countries as resulting from the analysis of the POLYMOD data [39]. (C) Probability of observing a summer wave with peak incidence in a given range (predictions refer to the best model with coupling between European countries: R0 = 0.8 during holidays), in UK (blue), Germany (cyan), Netherlands (orange), Ireland (green) and Spain (red). (D) Cumulative attack rate (2.5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 97.5% percentiles of the distribution are shown) in the different European countries (predictions refer to the best model with coupling between European countries: R0 = 0.8 during holidays). A total of 100 simulations for each parameter set were undertaken to produce the results shown.