Determinants of the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic in Europe: Implications for Real-Time Modelling
Figure 6
Effects of age-dependent susceptibility to infection (R0UK = 1.48 Tg = 3.1 days).
(A) Peak week for European countries covered by the WHO/Europe weekly influenza surveillance system as observed (cyan bars), as predicted by baseline simulations (susceptibility of children 2 fold greater than that of adults, black), by assuming that susceptibility of children and adults was identical (red) and by assuming children were 4-fold more susceptible than adults (green). (B) As (A) but showing the fraction of the attack rate by end of August. (C) As (A) but showing mean cumulative attack rates by age in UK. The inset shows the distribution across simulations of the cumulative attack rates in UK in the three scenarios. A total of 100 simulations for each parameter set were undertaken to produce the results shown.