Determinants of the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic in Europe: Implications for Real-Time Modelling
Figure 4
Sensitivity to assumed R0 and Tg.
(A) Sensitivity analysis by varying R0UK and Tg: level curves (and numbers) in black represent the mean deviation between observed and predicted peek week (in weeks). Colours represent the expected number N of countries with peak of the summer wave above 30 per 1000 individuals, ranging from dark green (N = 0) to dark red (N>30). Light green indicates 0.5<N< = 1.5, yellow indicates 1.5<N< = 2.5 and light orange indicate 2.5<N< = 5. Blue points represent possible pairs (R0UK, Tg) as resulting from the Qsurveillance data: R0UK = 1.42, Tg = 2.7 days; R0UK = 1.48, Tg = 3.1 days; R0UK = 1.55, Tg = 3.5 days. Blue vertical lines represent the uncertainty of R0UK as resulting from the uncertainty of the growth rate r of the Qsurveillance data. (B) Peak week for European countries covered by the WHO/Europe weekly influenza surveillance system as observed (cyan bars), as predicted by simulations with R0UK = 1.48 and Tg = 3.1 days (black squares), as predicted by simulations with R0UK = 1.42 and Tg = 2.7 days (green squares) and as predicted by simulations with R0UK = 1.55 and Tg = 3.5 days (red squares). (C) As (B) but for the fraction of the attack rate by end of August. (D) As (B) but for the cumulative attack rate. A total of 100 simulations were undertaken for each parameter set to produce the results shown.