Determinants of the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic in Europe: Implications for Real-Time Modelling
Figure 3
Variation in attack rates by age and country (R0UK = 1.48 Tg = 3.1 days).
(A) Average cumulative attack rate predicted by the model in the different European countries (black bars represent 2.5% and 97.5% percentiles of the distribution). Colours represent the fraction of individuals <15 year old in the population, increasing from yellow (13%) to red (22%). (B) Average peak weekly incidences predicted by the model in the different countries for the summer (orange) and the autumn (cyan) waves; for each country and wave, 2.5% and 97.5% percentiles of the distribution are shown (red and blue bars). (C) Post pandemic age-stratified attack rates. Estimates of post pandemic seroconvertion rates in England [34] (precisely, differences between the percentage of post pandemic (2010) serum samples from England with HI 1∶32 or more, and corresponding percentages in serum samples obtained in 2008 in England) against cumulative attack rates by age in UK predicted by the model at the end of the pandemic: red points represent the expected value of post pandemic seroconversion rates (vertical lines represent 95% confidence intervals), shaded blue areas represent 95% confidence intervals of model simulations. Cumulative attack rates by age as predicted by the model at the end of epidemic in different European countries are shown in the inset: shaded grey area represent 95% confidence interval at European level, while solid lines represent the median for Italy (blue), Germany (red) and Ireland (green). A total of 100 simulations were undertaken to produce the results shown.