Determinants of the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic in Europe: Implications for Real-Time Modelling
Figure 2
Spatiotemporal spread of the European pandemic (R0UK = 1.48 Tg = 3.1 days).
(A) Comparison between average weekly incidence in UK as predicted by the model (red) and weekly HPA case estimates (blue). Red shaded area represents 95% confidence intervals of the expected weekly incidence over time. (B) Comparison between average weekly incidence in Italy as predicted by the model (red) and weekly ILI cases [35] (blue). (C) Comparison between average weekly incidence in France as predicted by the model (red) and weekly ILI cases [37] (blue). (D) As (C) but assuming R0UK = 1.43. (E) Time sequence (in days) of a single simulation with the first European case in UK is shown. Colours from pink to dark red indicate an increasing number of daily cases (dark red indicates more than 10,000 daily cases). A total of 100 simulations were undertaken to produce the results shown.