Determinants of the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic in Europe: Implications for Real-Time Modelling
Figure 1
Timing of the pandemic (R0UK = 1.48 Tg = 3.1 days).
(A) Distribution of the fraction of predicted attack rate (2.5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 97.5% percentiles) by the end of August (week 35) in the different countries. In the inset, mean incidence per week in the different European countries in colour scale, from dark green (less than 5 per 1,000) to dark red (above 50 per 1,000). (B) Probability of observing a summer wave with peak incidence in a given range, in UK (blue), Germany (cyan), Netherlands (orange), Ireland (green) and Spain (red). (C) Observed peak week plotted versus predicted peak week (vertical bars represent 95% confidence intervals of the predictions) for European countries covered by the WHO/Europe weekly influenza surveillance system; only the autumn wave is considered for UK. In the inset minimum, 25%, 50%, 75% percentiles and maximum of observed minus predicted peak week. A total of 100 simulations were undertaken to produce the results shown.