Risk, Unexpected Uncertainty, and Estimation Uncertainty: Bayesian Learning in Unstable Settings
Figure 6
Goodness-of-fits of the Bayesian and reinforcement learning models under varying levels of structural uncertainty.
A Goodness-of-fits of the Bayesian and reinforcement learning models under full structural uncertainty (Treatment 1). Based on the choices of 43 participants in approximately 500 trials of our board game. The Bayesian model includes a penalty for estimation uncertainty – like in the data from [9], this model turned out to fit the data better than the base version of the Bayesian model. Heights of bars indicate mean of the individual Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC); line segments indicate standard deviations. The difference in the mean BIC is not significant (). B Goodness-of-fits of the Bayesian and reinforcement learning models under partial structural uncertainty (Treatment 2). Mean BICs and standard deviations of the Bayesian and reinforcement learning models in Treatment 2. Based on the choices of 32 participants in approximately 500 trials of our board game. The Bayesian model includes a penalty for estimation uncertainty. Participants knew the structure of the game except for the jumps in outcome probabilities. They were told that the description of the structure was incomplete.
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