Infectious Disease Modeling of Social Contagion in Networks

doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000968

Infectious Disease Modeling of Social Contagion in Networks

Figure 6

Comparing SISa model timecourse to historical data.

A comparison of historical data on the prevalence of obesity in the Framingham Heart Study (blue dots) and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (red dots) with the timeseries predicted from the SISa model with time-varying parameters. For the simulation, we allowed the parameters and to vary as observed in Figure 4, but kept constant at its average value. Before 1970 (when our measurements started), the prevalence of obesity was assumed to be stable at 14. The model and the data both show very similar rates of increase, with a slow post-1970 increase, followed by a rapid increase, and then increasing more slowly. The SISa model predicts the prevalence of obesity will increase slowly to a peak at 42.

doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000968.g006