Sub-national modelling of surveillance sensitivity to inform declaration of disease elimination: A retrospective validation against the elimination of wild poliovirus in Nigeria

• Emily S. Nightingale ,

  Roles Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualization, Writing – original draft

  * E-mail: Emily.Nightingale@lshtm.ac.uk

  Affiliations Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom, Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom

  https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9265-1841

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• Ly Pham-Minh,

  Roles Data curation, Investigation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Polio Eradication Department, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

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• Isah Mohammed Bello,

  Roles Data curation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Polio Eradication Department, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

  https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6351-7080

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• Samuel Okrior,

  Roles Investigation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, Washington, United States of America

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• Tesfaye Bedada Erbeto,

  Roles Data curation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation World Health Organization, Country Office, Abuja, Nigeria

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• Marycelin Baba,

  Roles Investigation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation National Polio Laboratory, Maiduguri, Nigeria

  https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1004-1717

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• Adekunle Adeneji,

  Roles Investigation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation National Polio Laboratory, Ibadan, Nigeria

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• Megan Auzenbergs,

  Roles Data curation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliations Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom, Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom

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• W. John Edmunds,

  Roles Conceptualization, Supervision, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliations Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom, Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom

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• Kathleen M. O’Reilly

  Roles Conceptualization, Funding acquisition, Methodology, Software, Supervision, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliations Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom, Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom

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