Individual and population level uncertainty interact to determine the performance of outbreak surveillance systems

• Callum R. K. Arnold ,

  Roles Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

  * E-mail: contact@callumarnold.com

  Affiliations Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America, Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America

  https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3245-6956

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• Alex C. Kong,

  Roles Conceptualization, Funding acquisition, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America

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• Amy K. Winter,

  Roles Conceptualization, Funding acquisition, Supervision, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliations Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America, Center for the Ecology of Infectious Disease, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America

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• William J. Moss,

  Roles Conceptualization, Funding acquisition, Supervision, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliations Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America, Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America

  https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6579-3513

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• Bryan N. Patenaude,

  Roles Conceptualization, Funding acquisition, Supervision, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America

  https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5180-3626

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• Matthew J. Ferrari

  Roles Conceptualization, Data curation, Funding acquisition, Methodology, Project administration, Supervision, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliations Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America, Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America

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