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Open Access
Peer-reviewed
Research Article
Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020–2021
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Velma K. Lopez ,
Roles Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Methodology, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing
* E-mail: oko8@cdc.gov (VKL)
Affiliation COVID-19 Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
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Estee Y. Cramer,
Roles Data curation, Methodology, Project administration, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Robert Pagano,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Unaffiliated, Tucson, Arizona, United States of America
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John M. Drake,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America
⨯ -
Eamon B. O’Dea,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America
⨯ -
Madeline Adee,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
⨯ -
Turgay Ayer,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
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Jagpreet Chhatwal,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Ozden O. Dalgic,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Value Analytics Labs, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Mary A. Ladd,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Benjamin P. Linas,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Peter P. Mueller,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Jade Xiao,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
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Johannes Bracher,
Roles Data curation, Project administration, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Chair of Econometrics and Statistics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
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Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira,
Roles Data curation, Project administration, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Aaron Gerding,
Roles Data curation, Project administration, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Tilmann Gneiting,
Roles Data curation, Project administration, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies, Heidelberg, Germany
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Yuxin Huang,
Roles Data curation, Project administration, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Dasuni Jayawardena,
Roles Data curation, Project administration, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Abdul H. Kanji,
Roles Data curation, Project administration, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Khoa Le,
Roles Data curation, Project administration, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Anja Mühlemann,
Roles Data curation, Project administration, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Institute of Mathematical Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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Jarad Niemi,
Roles Data curation, Project administration, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa, United States of America
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Evan L. Ray,
Roles Data curation, Project administration, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Ariane Stark,
Roles Data curation, Project administration, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Yijin Wang,
Roles Data curation, Project administration, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Nutcha Wattanachit,
Roles Data curation, Project administration, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Martha W. Zorn,
Roles Data curation, Project administration, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Sen Pei,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America
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Jeffrey Shaman,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America
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Teresa K. Yamana,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America
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Samuel R. Tarasewicz,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States of America
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Daniel J. Wilson,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States of America
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Sid Baccam,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation IEM, Bel Air, Maryland, United States of America
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Heidi Gurung,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation IEM, Bel Air, Maryland, United States of America
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Steve Stage,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation IEM, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, United States of America
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Brad Suchoski,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation IEM, Bel Air, Maryland, United States of America
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Lei Gao,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, United States of America
⨯ -
Zhiling Gu,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa, United States of America
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Myungjin Kim,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Kyungpook National University, Bukgu, Daegu, Republic of Korea
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Xinyi Li,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Clemson University, Clemson, South Carolina, United States of America
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Guannan Wang,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation College of William & Mary, Williamsburg, Virginia, United States of America
⨯ -
Lily Wang,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, United States of America
⨯ -
Yueying Wang,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Amazon, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
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Shan Yu,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America
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Lauren Gardner,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
⨯ -
Sonia Jindal,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
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Maximilian Marshall,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
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Kristen Nixon,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
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Juan Dent,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
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Alison L. Hill,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
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Joshua Kaminsky,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
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Elizabeth C. Lee,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
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Joseph C. Lemaitre,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
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Justin Lessler,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States of America
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Claire P. Smith,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
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Shaun Truelove,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
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Matt Kinsey,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
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Luke C. Mullany,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
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Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
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Lauren Shin,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
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Katharine Tallaksen,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
⨯ -
Shelby Wilson,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
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Dean Karlen,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of Victoria and TRIUMF, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
⨯ -
Lauren Castro,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America
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Geoffrey Fairchild,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America
⨯ -
Isaac Michaud,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America
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Dave Osthus,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America
⨯ -
Jiang Bian,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Microsoft, Redmond, Washington, United States of America
⨯ -
Wei Cao,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Microsoft, Redmond, Washington, United States of America
⨯ -
Zhifeng Gao,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Microsoft, Redmond, Washington, United States of America
⨯ -
Juan Lavista Ferres,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Microsoft, Redmond, Washington, United States of America
⨯ -
Chaozhuo Li,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Microsoft, Redmond, Washington, United States of America
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Tie-Yan Liu,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Microsoft, Redmond, Washington, United States of America
⨯ -
Xing Xie,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Microsoft, Redmond, Washington, United States of America
⨯ -
Shun Zhang,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Microsoft, Redmond, Washington, United States of America
⨯ -
Shun Zheng,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Microsoft, Redmond, Washington, United States of America
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Matteo Chinazzi,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Jessica T. Davis,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Kunpeng Mu,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Ana Pastore y Piontti,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Alessandro Vespignani,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
⨯ -
Xinyue Xiong,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Robert Walraven,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Unaffiliated, Davis, California, United States of America
⨯ -
Jinghui Chen,
Roles Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, United States of America
⨯ -
Quanquan Gu,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, United States of America
⨯ -
Lingxiao Wang,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, United States of America
⨯ -
Pan Xu,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, United States of America
⨯ -
Weitong Zhang,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, United States of America
⨯ -
Difan Zou,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, United States of America
⨯ -
Graham Casey Gibson,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America
⨯ -
Daniel Sheldon,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America
⨯ -
Ajitesh Srivastava,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, United States of America
⨯ -
Aniruddha Adiga,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America
⨯ -
Benjamin Hurt,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America
⨯ -
Gursharn Kaur,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America
⨯ -
Bryan Lewis,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America
⨯ -
Madhav Marathe,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America
⨯ -
Akhil Sai Peddireddy,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation Discreet Labs, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America
⨯ -
Przemyslaw Porebski,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America
⨯ -
Srinivasan Venkatramanan,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America
⨯ -
Lijing Wang,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, New Jersey, United States of America
⨯ -
Pragati V. Prasad,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation COVID-19 Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
⨯ -
Jo W. Walker,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation COVID-19 Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
⨯ -
Alexander E. Webber,
Roles Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation COVID-19 Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
⨯ -
Rachel B. Slayton,
Roles Project administration, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation COVID-19 Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
⨯ -
Matthew Biggerstaff,
Roles Conceptualization, Project administration, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation COVID-19 Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
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Nicholas G. Reich,
Roles Conceptualization, Methodology, Project administration, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Michael A. Johansson
Roles Conceptualization, Methodology, Project administration, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation COVID-19 Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
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Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020–2021
- Velma K. Lopez,
- Estee Y. Cramer,
- Robert Pagano,
- John M. Drake,
- Eamon B. O’Dea,
- Madeline Adee,
- Turgay Ayer,
- Jagpreet Chhatwal,
- Ozden O. Dalgic,
- Mary A. Ladd
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- Published: May 6, 2024
- https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011200