Predictions of COVID-19 dynamics in the UK: Short-term forecasting and analysis of potential exit strategies

Matt J. Keeling; Edward M. Hill; Erin E. Gorsich; Bridget Penman; Glen Guyver-Fletcher; Alex Holmes; Trystan Leng; Hector McKimm; Massimiliano Tamborrino; Louise Dyson; Michael J. Tildesley

doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008619

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Open Access

Peer-reviewed

Research Article

Predictions of COVID-19 dynamics in the UK: Short-term forecasting and analysis of potential exit strategies

Matt J. Keeling ,

Roles Conceptualization, Data curation, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

* E-mail: M.J.Keeling@warwick.ac.uk

Affiliation The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4639-4765

⨯
Edward M. Hill ,

Contributed equally to this work with: Edward M. Hill, Louise Dyson, Michael J. Tildesley

Roles Software, Validation, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

Affiliation The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2992-2004

⨯
Erin E. Gorsich,

Roles Writing – review & editing

Affiliation The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3017-0540

⨯
Bridget Penman,

Roles Writing – review & editing

Affiliation The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9803-5209

⨯
Glen Guyver-Fletcher,

Roles Data curation, Writing – review & editing

Affiliations The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom, Midlands Integrative Biosciences Training Partnership, School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9820-966X

⨯
Alex Holmes,

Roles Data curation, Writing – review & editing

Affiliations The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom, Mathematics for Real World Systems Centre for Doctoral Training, Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5913-851X

⨯
Trystan Leng,

Roles Writing – review & editing

Affiliations The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom, Mathematics for Real World Systems Centre for Doctoral Training, Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8312-9405

⨯
Hector McKimm,

Roles Writing – review & editing

Affiliations The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom, Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9922-6605

⨯
Massimiliano Tamborrino,

Roles Data curation, Writing – review & editing

Affiliations The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom, Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4661-8071

⨯
Louise Dyson ,

Contributed equally to this work with: Edward M. Hill, Louise Dyson, Michael J. Tildesley

Roles Software, Validation, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

Affiliation The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9788-4858

⨯
Michael J. Tildesley

Contributed equally to this work with: Edward M. Hill, Louise Dyson, Michael J. Tildesley

Roles Software, Validation, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

Affiliation The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6875-7232

⨯

Predictions of COVID-19 dynamics in the UK: Short-term forecasting and analysis of potential exit strategies

Matt J. Keeling,
Edward M. Hill,
Erin E. Gorsich,
Bridget Penman,
Glen Guyver-Fletcher,
Alex Holmes,
Trystan Leng,
Hector McKimm,
Massimiliano Tamborrino,
Louise Dyson

Published: January 22, 2021
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008619

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