An exact method for quantifying the reliability of end-of-epidemic declarations in real time

• Kris V. Parag ,

  Roles Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Project administration, Software, Validation, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

  * E-mail: k.parag@imperial.ac.uk

  Affiliation MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK

  https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7806-3605

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• Christl A. Donnelly,

  Roles Validation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliations MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK, Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

  https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0195-2463

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• Rahul Jha,

  Roles Validation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Department of Applied Math and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK

  https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0473-2538

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• Robin N. Thompson

  Roles Conceptualization, Validation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

  https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8545-5212

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