Table 1.
Estimate, standard error (SE) and 95% confidence interval (CI95%) of Turner’s growth model parameters fitted to the Italian COVID-19 daily case reporting data from 2020-02-20 to 2020-07-11, using the log-normal distribution (RMSE = 514.24, R2 = 99.97%) and the negative binomial distribution (RMSE = 530.93, R2 = 99.93%).
Fig 1.
Log-normal fit of Turner’s model to the COVID-19 daily case reporting data from Italy (2020-02-20 to 2020-07-11).
New reported cases (A), cumulative positive cases (B), active (quarantined) cases (C) and estimated (average) daily new infections based on a detection rate of δ = 0.033/day and a lost rate (recovery or death) of non-detected cases of π = 0.1/day (D).
Table 2.
Estimate, standard error (SE) and 95% confidence interval of peak statistics using the COVID-19 daily case reporting data from Italy (2020-02-20 to 2020-07-11).
Table 3.
AIC of Turner’s growth model fitted to the Italian COVID-19 daily case reporting data of the first two weeks and the first three weeks from 2020-02-20, with a log-normal distribution for the positive cases.
Table 4.
Estimate, standard error (SE) and 95% confidence interval of peak statistics using the COVID-19 daily case reporting data from Italy (2020-02-20 to 2020-07-11).
Table 5.
Estimate, standard error (SE) and 95% confidence interval (CI95%) of the parameters of the hyper-logistic growth model fitted using the log-normal distribution to the COVID-19 daily case reporting data from Italy for the first two weeks (RMSE = 92.16, R2 = 99.68%) and for the first three weeks (RMSE = 224.41, R2 = 99.87%) from 2020-02-20.