Beyond megadrought and collapse in the Northern Levant: The chronology of Tell Tayinat and two historical inflection episodes, around 4.2ka BP, and following 3.2ka BP
Fig 3
Model 2 (excluding OxA-32139): Bayesian chronological model for Tell Tayinat Iron Age sequence, part 1.
The Amodel and Aoverall values are satisfactory versus the threshold value of 60 (Table 4). Data from OxCal 4.3.2 and IntCal20 with calibration curve resolution set at 1 year. The Individual OxCal Agreement values (A), the Posterior v. Prior values from the OxCal General Outlier model for the short-lived samples (O), and the Convergence (C) values are all shown. The wood charcoal samples with the Charcoal Plus Outlier model applied all have a Posterior/Prior value of 100/100. The light-shaded red probability distributions for each dated sample are the non-modeled calibrated age probability distributions for each sample in isolation. The dark red probability distributions are the modeled calendar age probability distributions. The line under each probability distribution indicates the modeled 95.4% highest posterior density (hpd) range. Cyan color indicates the start and end Boundaries of the model. Green color indicates the Boundaries calculated within the Tell Tayinat Sequence. Blue color indicates an OxCal Date estimate query for a Phase (this quantifies the time period within the start and end Boundary for the relevant Phase).