Beyond megadrought and collapse in the Northern Levant: The chronology of Tell Tayinat and two historical inflection episodes, around 4.2ka BP, and following 3.2ka BP
Fig 2
The portion of Model 1 showing the period 6 data to illustrate the very large outlier OxA-32139 on sample SA5113 (see text).
This sample is excluded from the remainder of the modeling in our study. Data from OxCal 4.3.2 and IntCal20 with calibration curve resolution set at 1 year. The OxCal Agreement (A) values, the Posterior v. Prior values from the OxCal General Outlier model (O) for the short-lived samples, and the Convergence (C) values are all shown. The dates on wood charcoal samples with the Charcoal Outlier Plus model applied always have an outlier value of 100/100. The light-shaded red probability distributions for each dated sample are the non-modeled calibrated age probability distributions for each sample in isolation. The dark red probability distributions are the modeled (posterior density) calendar age probability distributions. The lines under each probability distribution indicate the modeled 68.2% and 95.4% highest posterior density (hpd) ranges. (Note: OxCal from version 4.4.1 uses 68.3% hpd ranges, however, since we employed OxCal 4.3.2 in this paper, we list 68.2% ranges following OxCal version 4.3.2.).