Accuracy gains from conservative forecasting: Tests using variations of 19 econometric models to predict 154 elections in 10 countries

• Andreas Graefe ,

  Contributed equally to this work with: Andreas Graefe, Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong

  Roles Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Methodology, Project administration, Validation, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

  * E-mail: graefe.andreas@gmail.com

  Affiliation Macromedia University, Munich, Germany

  http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6406-8811

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• Kesten C. Green ,

  Contributed equally to this work with: Andreas Graefe, Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong

  Roles Conceptualization, Supervision, Validation, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliations University of South Australia Business School, Adelaide, Australia, The Ehrenberg-Bass Institute, University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia

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• J. Scott Armstrong

  Contributed equally to this work with: Andreas Graefe, Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong

  Roles Conceptualization, Methodology, Supervision, Validation, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliations The Ehrenberg-Bass Institute, University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, United States of America

  http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0108-0471

  ⨯