Fig 1.
Timeline and characteristics of the 1857 YF epidemic in Lisbon.
(A) A timeline illustrating the key events of the YF epidemic (B) Daily reported cases (grey points) and one-step-ahead incidence prediction (orange line) (see [45]) with 95% and 50% credible intervals (orange shading). (C) Rt estimates (orange line) with 95% and 50% credible intervals (shaded region) over time. The horizontal dashed line marks the epidemic threshold (Rt = 1).
Fig 2.
YF mortality in Lisbon’s populations during the 1857 epidemic.
(A) Deaths by age group and sex at either home or YF-specific hospital, as a proportion of total population of the respective age groups. (B) A map of the neighbourhood mortality rate per 1,000 persons. Digital neighbourhood boundaries created by the authors, based on the information in ATLAS Cartografía Histórica [52] and the work of Alves [40]. The authors have received permission to license the neighbourhood boundaries under CC BY-4.0 without restriction. The data that was traced over is available at: http://atlas.fcsh.unl.pt/cartoweb35/atlas.php?lang=en.
Fig 3.
A Sankey diagram delineating the proportion of all deaths occurring at home and in special hospitals in relation to occupational group and sex, during the 1857 YF epidemic in Lisbon.
The wider the flow, the higher the density. Source: based on data in Health Council ([22], tables 9 and 21, pp. 75, 99).
Fig 4.
YF mortality across Lisbon parishes and streets during the 1857 Lisbon epidemic.
(A) Clustered column chart of the distribution of fatalities at home and at hospital in each parish of Lisbon. (B) The mortality rate per 1.000 persons, by parish. The numbers within the parishes represent the order in which the epidemic progressed – number 1 represents the first infected, number 34 represents the last infected, based on reported data. (C) Getis-Ord Gi* hot spot analysis map, using fixed distance bands. The numbers within the parishes represent the order in which the epidemic progressed. Digital parish boundaries created by the authors, based on the information in ATLAS Cartografía Histórica [52] and the work of Alves [40]. The authors have received permission to license the parish boundaries under CC BY-4.0 without restriction. The data that was traced over is available at: http://atlas.fcsh.unl.pt/cartoweb35/atlas.php?lang=en. Map scales are 1:27,500. (D) The spatial extent of the epidemic on the street scale. 101 spots are applied to the centroids of streets. A star represents the residence of Jose Francisco, patient zero. Medical symbology represents the locations of the seven special YF hospitals and one alternative hospital – from left to right: Rua de Santo Ambrosio, Largo de Conde Barão, Rilhafolles, Calcada de Santa Anna, São José (alternative), Desterro, Largo dos Loyos, and Campo de Santa Clara. Historic base map drawn by Clarke [51]. Map scale is 1:15,000.
Fig 5.
YF deaths by elevation during the 1857 Lisbon epidemic.
(A) A map displaying multiple-ring buffer zones at 106 m (yellow) and 533 m (red) around each street spot and on the coastline at customs (blue) to investigate wind-blown vectors. The location of patient zero is included for context. Map scale is 1:17,500. (B) Dynamic Range Adjustment (DRA) Digital Terrain Model (DTM) and fatality count by street. (C) Elevation contours at 10-metre intervals derived from the aforementioned DTM, and fatality count by street. Map scale is 1:15,000. Elevation data source: Neal and Hawker [60]. The authors have received permission to license the digital elevation data under CC BY-4.0 without restriction. The data is available at, https://data.bris.ac.uk/data/dataset/s5hqmjcdj8yo2ibzi9b4ew3sn. Historic base map drawn by Clarke [51].