Table 1.
Description of SSP scenarios.
Fig 1.
Historical and projected monthly SPI and extreme heat days. (A) Monthly SPI and (B) monthly extreme heat days from 2003 to 2021 and during the periods 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, 2081–2100 with climate change scenarios SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 in Thailand. Climate projections are based on the MIROC6 GCM.
Fig 2.
National level incidence rate ratio (IRR) and population attributable fraction (PAF) over days of extreme heat and standardised precipitation index (SPI) for dengue, JEV, influenza, malaria, pneumonia, leptospirosis and melioidosis.
Bars represent 95% confidence intervals and red bars represent statistically significant points.
Fig 3.
Excess risk of pneumonia, influenza, JEV, malaria, dengue, melioidosis and leptospirosis during periods of extreme weather, across 2021 to 2100, in climate change scenarios SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585.
Excess risk represents the percentage change in annual disease case counts from the historical baseline from 2003 to 2020.
Fig 4.
Excess risk (ER) of JEV, malaria and dengue during periods of extreme heat, extreme dry weather and extreme wet weather, across 2021 to 2100, in climate change scenarios SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585.
Excess risk represents the percentage change in annual disease case counts from the historical baseline from 2003 to 2020.
Fig 5.
Excess risk (ER) of influenza, pneumonia, leptospirosis and melioidosis during periods of extreme heat, extreme dry weather and extreme wet weather, across 2021 to 2100, in climate change scenarios SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585.
Excess risk represents the percentage change in annual disease case counts from the historical baseline from 2003 to 2020.
Fig 6.
(A) Excess risk of the five provinces with the historically highest incidence of dengue during periods of extreme weather, under SSP245 from 2021–2100. (B) Province-level excess risks of dengue under SSP245 from 2021–2100. Asterisks indicate a statistically significant excess risk value. Excess risk represents the percentage change in annual disease case counts from the historical baseline from 2003 to 2020. Map created using GADM data (https://gadm.org/index.html, freely available for academic use). The map outlines and administrative boundaries are used with permission for academic publishing.
Fig 7.
(A) Excess risk of the five provinces with the historically highest incidence of influenza during periods of extreme weather, under SSP245 from 2021–2100. (B) Province-level excess risks of influenza under SSP245 from 2021–2100. Asterisks indicate a statistically significant excess risk value. Excess risk represents the percentage change in annual disease case counts from the historical baseline from 2003 to 2020. Map created using GADM data (https://gadm.org/index.html, freely available for academic use). The map outlines and administrative boundaries are used with permission for academic publishing.