Fig 1.
Square boxes correspond to state variables, while circles indicate model parameters. Solid arrows indicate in or outflows from each compartment, while dashed lines or arrows indicate the flows that are regulated by parameters interacting with the state variables connected to them. R = reservoir host, Vi = vector species, with i = 1, Lu. cruciata, and i = 2, B. olmeca, and H = humans. Subindices S = susceptible, E = exposed. and I = infected, identify the epidemiological status of each compartment.
Table 1.
State variables associated to the cutaneous leishmaniasis transmission model, along with their initial values used in the simulations. Epidemiological compartments: S = susceptible, E = exposed, and I = infected.
Table 2.
Parameters associated to the cutaneous leishmaniasis transmission model, along with the fixed values used in the simulations and the source of these values. i = 1 corresponds to vector species Lu. cruciata and i = 2 to vector species Bi. olmeca.
Table 3.
Parameters of the sand fly population growth model derived from Castillo et al. [49].
Fig 2.
Trajectory of infection prevalence in each species of the CL system in three scenarios based on the vector species present.
Initial conditions and variable parameters were H(0) = 60, ε = 0.13, R = 1500. Vi(0) populations were calculated at equilibrium level with the formula for Ki, and were zero in scenarios where either are absent.
Fig 3.
Effect of increasing transmission efficiency (ε) on infection prevalence among humans, in each of the three possible scenarios of human population density.
Initial conditions and variable parameters were H(0) = 60, ε = [0.01 - 0.13], RS(0) = 1500, RI(0) = 1. Vi(0) populations were calculated at equilibrium level with the formula for Ki, = aiR(0) + biH(0), and were zero in scenarios where either are absent.
Fig 4.
Sobol sensitivity analysis of the system using a uniform distribution with minimum and maximum correspoding to the default values ±20%.
The height of the columns in the y-axis shows the Sobol total sensitivity index, which already takes into acccount the variance of all parameters, for each state variable (colour). The initial conditions were H(0) = 60, RS(0) = 1500, RI(0) = 1, ε = 0.13.