Fig 1.
Daily new dengue cases and temperature data from July 15 to November 20, 2019.
(A) Daily new dengue cases in Guangzhou; (B) Daily new dengue cases in Jinghong; (C) Temperature data in Guangzhou; (D) Temperature data in Jinghong.
Fig 2.
The number of aquatic-stage larvae and adult mosquitoes obtained by the dynamic model from July 15 to November 20, 2019.
(A-B) The number of aquatic-stage larvae and adult mosquitoes in Guangzhou; (C-D) The number of aquatic-stage larvae and adult mosquitoes in Jinghong.
Table 1.
The definition of parameters contained in Eqs. (1)-(7).
Table 2.
Pearson correlation analysis of weekly mosquito vector data simulated by dynamic model in Guangzhou and actual weekly mosquito vector data in Panyu District in 2019.
Fig 3.
Cross-correlation analysis between the number of mosquito vectors and the daily reported cases in Guangzhou from July 15 to November 20, 2019.
Fig 4.
Cross-correlation analysis between the number of mosquito vectors and the daily reported cases in Jinghong from July 15 to November 20, 2019.
Table 3.
The fixed parameter, estimated parameters (in Eqs. (1)–(7)) and their 95% CI for Guangzhou and Jinghong cities are presented.
Fig 5.
Contour plots of mosquito vector parameters with respect to DMT and DTR in Guangzhou.
Fig 6.
Contour plots of mosquito vector parameters with respect to DMT and DTR in Jinghong.
Fig 7.
Variation trend of mosquito vector parameters in Guangzhou during the dengue fever epidemic period from July 15 to November 20, 2019.
(A) Biting rate ; (B) The transmission probability from the vector to humans per bite
; (C) The transmission probability from human to the vector per bite
; (D) External incubation period
.
Fig 8.
Variation trend of mosquito vector parameters in Jinghong during the dengue fever epidemic period from July 15 to November 20, 2019.
(A) Biting rate ; (B) The transmission probability from the vector to humans per bite
; (C) The transmission probability from human to the vector per bite
; (D) External incubation period
.
Fig 9.
PRCC sensitivity analysis of six mosquito vector parameters to basic reproduction number
. The red, blue and green bars are for the temperature without consideration, the temperature of Guangzhou and the temperature of Jinghong respectively.
Fig 10.
The effective reproduction number in Guangzhou (red line) and Jinghong (blue) from July 15 to November 20, 2019.
Fig 11.
Impact of different import coefficients () on the daily number of new cases in Guangzhou (A) and Jinghong (B) from July 15 to November 20, 2019.
The baseline values of for Guangzhou (3.7542) and for Jinghong (191.5245) are from the result of MCMC parameter estimation. The baseline values are increases by 20%, decreases by 20%, and decreases by 40% respectively. Substitute
back into the dynamic model to simulate the corresponding daily number of new cases.