Fig 1.
An illustration of the compartmental model for the YF transmission dynamics: Yellow compartments represent the infected classes (including the exposed classes for human and mosquitoes), while the diamond-shaped compartments are for the infectious classes.
Red terms indicate temperature-dependent model parameters while blue terms indicate rainfall-dependent model parameters.
Table 1.
Model variable descriptions and initial conditions: Brazil 2017/2018 outbreak.
Table 2.
Biological explanations and values of the model parameters.
Fig 2.
Simulated curve of symptomatic infectious humans (red), from the fitted YF model, compared to the incidence data from the 2017/2018 outbreak (blue dots).
Fig 3.
Impact of temperature on the cumulative cases in the study region, where average rainfall is held constant at a value of approximately 28 mm.
Fig 4.
Impact of rainfall on the cumulative cases in the study region, where average temperature is held constant at a value of approximately 24 ∘C.
Fig 5.
Impact of temperature and rainfall on cumulative symptomatic infections in the study region under different RCP scenarios, over the course of the first 15 weeks of the outbreak.
Fig 6.
The heatmap of the basic human infection reproduction number in the study region by varying the average temperature and average rainfall in the range under different climate projection scenarios.
Fig 7.
The basic human infection reproduction number in the study region under different temperatures and mosquito-to-human transmission rates.
The red curve is where , to the left of which an outbreak can be averted.
Fig 8.
The impact of a (hypothetical) administration of emergency vaccine with different vaccination rates on the incidence and cumulative cases during the 2017/2018 outbreak.
Different v values correspond to different vaccination rates.
Fig 9.
The impact of administration of emergency vaccine with different vaccination rates on the incidence and cumulative cases under RCP 8.5 scenario.
Fig 10.
The equivalence between reducing the mosquito-to-human transmission rate and administrating emergency vaccine in terms of reducing the cumulative (both symptomatic and asymptomatic) infections of the first 15 weeks from epidemic outbreak in the study region under the RCP 8.5 scenario.
Fig 11.
The impact of the mosquito-to-human transmission rate and the emergency vaccination rate on the reduction of cumulative infections (both symptomatic and asymptomatic) during the first 15 weeks of the epidemic in the study region, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, assuming a constant emergency vaccination rate throughout the outbreak.