Fig 1.
Map of the study area showing land cover types, historical mosquito surveillance sites (2001–2021), and meteorological stations.
The black perimeter delimits the prediction zone, while the dark green boundary indicates the Parc Natural dels Aiguamolls de l’Empordà (PNAE). The inset map in the bottom left shows the Alt Empordà region, located in the province of Girona, Catalonia (northeastern Spain).
Fig 2.
Temporal patterns of (a) Ae. albopictus and (b) Culex spp. populations from 2015 to 2018, including the mean annual variability for each species.
Average predicted mosquito counts per trap are presented on a weekly basis, calculated as the sum of daily predictions.
Fig 3.
Spatial distribution of (a) Ae. albopictus and (b) Culex spp. populations.
The visualization employs a color gradient based on the Natural Jenks classification method, highlighting spatial distribution patterns of both species across different land cover types. Each pixel represents the predicted number of mosquitoes that would be captured in a hypothetical trap on an average day during the period 2015–2018, at a grid resolution of 150 meters.
Fig 4.
Experimental WNV viremia curves for PNAE bird species.
Green lines represent individual experiment curves, while the solid black line depicts the average viremia curve. The dashed red line indicates the threshold (105 PFU/ml) for mosquito infection.
Table 1.
Host competence (), abundance (Ab), and host capacity (
) for bird species in the study area.
Fig 5.
Maps of the study area, divided into km grid cells, illustrating the proportion of WNV reservoir birds and the WNV risk index.
The visualization employs an equal-interval classification scheme. (a) The proportion of WNV reservoir birds was calculated as the abundance of reservoir birds divided by the total abundance of reservoir and non-reservoir birds. The map represents amplification and dilution effects on WNV transmission dynamics based on the bird community composition. (b) The WNV risk index was calculated as the product of predicted mean Culex spp. mosquito counts and the proportion of WNV reservoir birds in each cell, assuming that mosquito biting patterns are proportional to host abundance. The resulting values were normalized on a scale from 0 to 1, reflecting the relative potential for mosquito-reservoir interactions. Darker areas indicate greater risk of WNV transmission due to the convergence of high vector and reservoir abundance.
Fig 6.
Comparison of Ae. albopictus seasonal dynamics with human seasonal population and imported dengue, Zika, and chikungunya cases.
The red line in both panels illustrates the predicted weekly average mosquito counts per trap. (a) Grey bars represent the quarterly mean Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) seasonal human population in the Alt Empordà region. (b) Stacked bars represent the weekly average number of imported cases throughout the year, both for the entire region of Catalonia and for the provinces of Barcelona and Girona.