Fig 1.
PRISMA flow chart depicting article selection process. Constructed with Covidence [22].
Fig 2.
“Phylogenetic tree” of models.
A “phylogenetic tree” representing the commonalities between models from the selected articles. Each “tree node” represents a differentiation in model structure. Model attributes, corresponding with the column headings, are found over each “branch”. The IDs for the models (listed in Table 1) described by each set of attributes are at the terminal end of each “branch”. Here we denote M. ulcerans as “MU” and describe model compartments with letter signifiers (for example, “SIR Humans” for a susceptible-infectious-recovered compartmental model for humans).
Fig 3.
Compilation of model compartments.
Compartment model diagram depicting the frequency of compartments in reviewed models and transition/transmission pathways. Compartments are susceptible (S), exposed (E), infectious (I), treated (T) and removed (R) with subscripts H for humans, R for reservoirs, V for vectors and compartment U for environmental M. ulcerans. SLow and SHigh represent susceptible individuals at low and high risk, respectively. IS and INS represent infectious individuals seeking treatment or not seeking treatment. RDis represents individuals who acquire a disability as a result of having Buruli ulcer. UR and represent reservoir and vector associated bacteria. Compartment box sizes represent the relative frequency of these compartments in the reviewed models. Black arrows indicate transitions of individuals between compartments, red dashed arrows represent M. ulcerans transmission routes and green arrows represent shedding of M. ulcerans from infectious compartments into the environment. Thickness of the arrows represent the relative frequency of pathways in the reviewed models. To see the IDs for the models (listed in Table 1) containing each pathway and compartment, see S3 Appendix.
Table 1.
Overview of Buruli ulcer transmission models.
The first column contains the article ID assigned for ease of reference and is used throughout this review—this is different from the article reference number shown in the second column. ID 2a refers to the base model in article 2, and 2b refers to the model presented in the supplimentary material of paper ID 2. Model characteristics present in model 2b and not in 2a are shown in brackets.
Table 2.
Basic reproduction numbers, theoretical analysis techniques and results (excluding paper IDs 2 and 9, which did not produce theoretical results).
Parameter and reproduction number values are reported where available. Note parameter units have not been standardised as information was often limited. Reproduction number dependence (positive (+) or negative (-)) and sensitivity analysis correlations are shown in brackets. Here we denote M. ulcerans as “MU”.
Table 3.
Applied analysis techniques and results.