Fig 1.
Schematic of the multi-host mathematical model.
The symbols ,
,
, and
represent the proportions of susceptible, exposed, infectious and recovered individuals of host species i, respectively. Similarly,
and
denote the proportions of susceptible and infectious ticks, respectively. The definition of each model parameter and its range in the calibration, the initial values of state variables, and model equations are provided in S1 Text.
Table 1.
Definitions of model parameters and their ranges for calibration.
Fig 2.
Information of the included studies.
(A) Locations of eligible surveys. The dots for Surveys 1, 2, 4, and 7 were jittered to avoid overlap. (B) Seroprevalence rate for each species by survey ID. (C) Estimated abundance of each host species in the studied prefecture (See S2 Text for details on host abundance estimation). Only relative abundance was used in the model and it was assumed that the relative abundance of each host species in the surveyed locations matches that of the corresponding prefecture. (D) Estimated number of seropositive individuals for each species, calculated as the product of seroprevalence rate and host abundance. Survey IDs were assigned according to publication year. Provincial boundaries and elevation map were obtained from GADM (https://gadm.org/) and WorldClim (https://www.worldclim.org/), respectively.
Fig 3.
Overall basic reproduction number.
(A) The posterior distribution of the overall for each survey. The vertical dashed line represents
= 1 and the numbers on the right side of the plots indicate the median value and the 95% CI of the overall
estimated from 10,000 posterior samples. (B) Relationship between the overall
and the seroprevalence rates by species. Each dot represents a survey, with the same color scheme as in (A). The bars represent the 95% CIs.
Fig 4.
Species-level s for each species in each survey.
The circles are colored by species. The radii of the gray circles are proportional to the median overall s, while those of the colored circles are proportional to the species-level
s.
Fig 5.
(A) Overall and (B) species-level
s when different species was left out from the calibration for Survey 9.
Black bars represent the values estimated using the full dataset, while the colored bars represent the values estimated when the seroprevalence rate for one host species was left out from the calibration.